Why do the Atlanta Falcons suck?

It is no secret that the Falcons are horrible this season. In the wake of starting 0-5, they fired head coach Dan Quinn after five seasons. His time at Atlanta can be summed up with two numbers: 28-3. The Falcons are now 2-6 and it would take a true miracle for them to even sniff the playoffs but how did we get to this point? We can start by looking at last season. 

Last season summary

The 2019 season was very mediocre as they went 7-9 but it could’ve been a lot worse. They went into their bye week 1-7 and managed to win six of their last eight games (most of them were against non-playoff teams but a W is a W.) Matt Ryan was decent enough; Devonta Freeman was a shell of himself coming off his injury-riddled 2018 campaign; Calvin Ridley had a breakout season and Julio Jones was, well, Julio Jones. Their defense was slightly improved but the collapse they suffered after 2016 was even more apparent. Dan Quinn missed Kyle Shanahan more than I miss leaving the house without my mask and it has been showing. 

Fun Fact: The Falcons’ defense was tied for 7th in the league for fewest plays allowed (985) but, of those plays, 42.8% of them ended up with their opponents scoring which was the 2nd highest in the league. 

So what’s going on?

The 2020 season has been nothing but torture for the players, coaches, and fans as the Falcons seem to be addicted to choking away leads. They're suffering from Falcons’ Murphy’s Law: “Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.” However, unlike with the Vikings, I don’t think their quarterback is entirely to blame. Matt Ryan is doing a good enough job airing it out. He’s posting his best QBR (75.8) since his MVP season in 2016 (I forgot he won an MVP lmao) and he and his wide receivers are the only reason this team is relatively competitive. However, I do believe we can look at three reasons why they are where they are.

1. Their Defense 

It’s no secret how atrocious the Falcons’ defense has been since their Super Bowl run in 2016. Their defense has always been their Achilles heel as no matter how many points Ryan and company put up or the size of the lead, it’s almost a guarantee that they would never hold on to it, and that hasn’t changed this season. 

Atlanta’s defense has been very nice to opposing offenses this season as they have allowed them to run up the score without much resistance. They’ve allowed 30 points or more on four occasions and only held a team to under 20 points once (Panthers in week 8) in their eight games played this season.  They’ve allowed the most yards in the league with 3285 but that mainly comes through the air. Their pass defense has been deplorable as they have allowed the most passing touchdowns (20) and the 2nd most passing yards (2491) in the league. 

Their defensive woes can be attributed to the fact that they are unable to get at their opponent’s quarterback. The Falcons are 24th in the league in total sacks (13) although they’re  5th in the league in terms of total pressures and blitzes.  They’re getting hurries and knockdowns still, but for some reason, they’re always a split second too late and they can’t seem to finish the job. It could be due to the secondary not being able to cover for long enough or taking too long to get to the quarterback but either way, this is a serious problem. 

Atlanta’s biggest problem for the last decade was that they never had an elite pass rusher, the only exception was Vic Beasley in 2016 when they went to the Superbowl. Injuries aside, they need to make some changes to their scheme to get to the quarterback quicker so their pressures can turn into sacks. Speaking of scheme changes, this bleeds perfectly into my next point.

2. Dan Quinn

So, the Dan Quinn firing was the right move. He was also an average coach, who was able to coast by thanks to the talent around him for years. He was the defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks in 2013-14 (during their Super Bowl run) before getting the HC job at Atlanta. 

The main reason he got that job was that he was seen as a defensive genius because he was the play-caller for the “Legion of Boom,” but the problem he had was that he tried to copy and paste the same scheme in Atlanta without the same personnel.  Gus Bradley ran into the same problem when he had his stint with the Jaguars, if you try to run a system without the proper players you’ll always fail. Quinn’s unchanging defensive schemes in certain situations and his conservative play calling when he has a lead is what ultimately led to his firing. 

Another reason why it was the right decision to let him go was that I think his words ran stale in the locker room. After the choking in the Superbowl, two 7-9 seasons, another 0-5 start, and numerous blown leads, I can imagine that his attempts of rallying the troops began to fall on deaf ears. Sometimes players need to hear the same things from somebody else for it to have an effect. As the wise French Montana once said, “change is good for everybody.”

3. Choking big leads.

Growing up my father always had a saying whenever I did something wrong more than once. He said, “Son, once is an accident, twice is a coincidence but three times is a habit and that’s where it becomes a problem.” I think that saying perfectly sums up the Falcons this season as they always somehow end up stumbling on the final hurdle before they reach the finish line. 

The shadow of the blown 28-3 lead in SuperBowl four years ago is still looming over this team and has become a big part of their 2020 season. On three occasions the Falcons have had leads late in the 4th quarter only to see it vanish for one reason or the other.

Against the Cowboys, it was because their team forgot how to pick up a football. Against the Bears, it’s because the backup god “Big Dick” Nick Foles subbed in for Mitchell Trubisky and lit them up. Against the Lions, it’s because Todd Gurley couldn’t let down fantasy owners and decided to cross the goal line instead of stopping before running down the clock and kicking a game-winning field goal. Then again knowing the Falcons they probably would’ve ended up missing it, You know how Falcons’ Law goes. 

But aside from poor defense and the suspect coaching of Dan Quinn, I do believe that these three games have ruined the Atlanta Falcons season altogether. Football at the end of the day is about wins and losses, you are what your record says you are. They could’ve been 5-3 and competing for an NFC playoff berth, however, the 28-3 Super Bowl disaster still haunts this franchise as we see it rare its ugly head time and time again. 

We often hear that history repeats itself but how often is it that history repeats itself three times in one season I wonder. It’s a beautiful tragedy which sums up the Dan Quinn era in the Atlanta Falcons perfectly

Final Thoughts 

The defense showed signs of life against the Panthers in week 8 so hopefully, that carries into the rest of the season. Am I confident that it will? Absolutely not, it’s Atlanta after all, but I don’t mind being wrong. They should be in rebuild mode, but that's going to be easier said than done, but that’s a different topic for a different piece. 

Hey all you Falcons fans, want to celebrate the end of the Dan Quinn era? Why not do it in style with some fresh merch from Fanatics, the global leader for licensed sports merchandise. Check out my link below to see their wide range of Atlanta Falcons’ gear and while you're there feel free to check out the merch from all your other favorite teams and players. Right now they’re offering 60% off selected items storewide so what are you waiting for? Now is as good a time as any to, in the words of Tom Haverford and Donna Meagle, “treat yo self.”

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A look back at Bill O’Brien’s time with the Houston Texans.

On the 5^th of October 2020, the 0-4 Houston Texans fired their head coach, general manager, offensive play-caller, and probably team chef Bill O’Brien. My immediate reaction to this was to scream out “yessssirrrrrrrrrrr!!! It’s about damn time.” The fact that he had a job for as long as he did prove not only how weak the AFC South was, but also his ability to shift blame and avoid accountability. Let’s dive into his reign of ineptitude and mediocrity, shall we?

 

O’Brien was with the team since 2014 and posted an overall record of 52-48 in the regular season which included four AFC South Divisional Titles and a 2-4 playoff record.  During the early parts of his career, the only experience he had with the NFL was being on the New England Patriots staff from 2007-2011. He held many titles there during his four-year period. His highlight during that time was getting into a screaming match with the goat Tom Brady after he threw an interception against the Washington Redsk…... I mean Football Team on December 11^th, 2011.

 

From 2012 he then spent two seasons trying to revive the dead corpse of what was once called the Penn State football program. He was hired after the child sex abuse scandals involving their former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky. Because of this scandal, the Penn State program was faced with punishments like a five-year probation, a four-year postseason ban, losing forty scholarships from 2013 to 2017, and many others. 

 

So, Bill was taking over a team made up of scraps for lack of a better term. But the team was able to be much better than expected posting an 8-4 and 7-5 record in 2012 and 2013 respectively. He was then hired by the Texans on January 2^nd, 2014 after they fired Gary Kubiak and had the worst record in the league with 2-14. Subsequently, with the 1^st overall pick in the 2014 draft, the Texans selected defensive end, Jadeveon Clowney.

 

Texans’ Tenure Summary.

 

He went 9-7 with the team in his first three seasons, winning two AFC South titles in 2015 & 2016. In the 2015 postseason, they got blown out the water by the Kansas City Chiefs 30-0. In 2016 they did manage to beat the Derek Carr-less Oakland Raiders (back when he was an MVP candidate) to advance to the Divisional Round for the first time since 2012. They then fell to O’Brien’s former team, the Patriots 34-16.

 

What’s interesting is that in those three seasons, O’Brien had a revolving door of QBs. From 2014-2016 the Houston Texans had a total of 8 starting quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett (2014 & 2015), Case Keenum, Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, and Tom Savage. And apart from Ftizmagic, all those guys were trash.

 

Oh yeah Brock Osweiler, remember him? Remember when they signed him to a 4-year $72 million deal in 2016? Good times.

 

Now in the 2017 Draft, the Texans traded their 25^th pick and their 2018 1^st round pick to the Browns to move up to 12^th and grab Deshaun Watson. Now finally for the first time, O’Brien had a decent young quarterback to build around.

 

Watson missed nine games in the 2017 season and that combined with their defense finally falling apart caused the Texans to slip to a 4-12 record. He did bounce back in both the 2018 & 2019 season winning the division twice with a record of 11-5 and 10-6 respectively. In the playoffs both years, they managed a 1-2 record, advancing to the Divisional round in 2019.

 

So, if just looked at his record and his accomplishments you’ll be thinking, “gee-whiz this guy isn’t half bad,” but my friend you would be dead wrong. You see we need to look a little deeper into what else transpired during his tenure for us to get the full picture.

 

Helping Circumstances.

 

Firstly, the AFC South was a trash division during his time. Besides the Colts in the early 2000s, this division has been a breeding ground for disappointment and mediocrity. From 2014-2019, only the Texans have a winning percentage over 50% at 54.1%, Colts = 50%, Titans = 42.7% and Jags = 33.3%. 

 

Secondly, in his first three seasons, they only reason that they were able to stay above 500 was that their defense lead by J.J. Watt. Watt won two DPOYs during O’Brien’s tenure and helped anchor their defense to top 10 finishes in most statistical categories in both 2014 & 2015. Without Watt and the other defensive studs that the Texans had, it’s safe to say that O’Brien’s record wouldn’t be what it was.

 

Finally, let's discuss some of the moves he made during his time there, as this will highlight his biggest flaw which isn’t his mediocre coaching, but it’s his ego.

 

PS – I’m not counting the Duane Brown trade because that was more between Brown and the Texan’s owner.

 

Firing up the Trade Machine.

 

After the Texans fired Brian Gaine after only one season with them on June 7^th, 2019, they soon appointed executive VP Chris Olsen as the interim GM. This was the beginning of the year-long quest for power that O’Brien set out on. Let me highlight some of his “best moves.”

 

September 1^st – He ships Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle for Jacob Martin, Barkevious Mingo, and a 2020 3^rd round pick. Clowney was reluctant to play for the Texans because the team didn’t want to pay him as it would’ve taken them over the cap limit.

 

September 1^st – He acquires Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills, a 2020 4^th rounder and a 2021 6^th rounder from the Dolphins in exchange for a 2020 & 2021 1^st round pick, a 2021 2^nd round pick, Johnson Bademosi and Julien Davenport. Now to me, isn’t even that bad. Giving up two 1^st rounders wasn’t ideal but Tunsil is a great lineman, so I find this was a decent enough trade.

January 28^th – A few weeks after blowing a 21-point lead to the Chiefs, Bill O’Brien was appointed the general manager of the Texans. For what reason, I still do not know.

 

March 16^th – He sends four-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and a 2020 4th round pick to the Cardinals and got back a 2020 2^nd round pick, a 2021 4^th rounder, and David Johnson. Just WTF man. It is alleged that O’Brien compared him to Aaron Hernandez and that he didn’t like, “all his baby mommas around.”  Yes, that Aaron Hernandez, the murderer.

 

In the span of fewer than 2 years, the Texans traded away three All-Pros and didn’t even receive a single 1^st round pick in return. If this isn’t the height of incompetence and ineptitude, then I don’t know what is.

 

After presenting this evidence I am here to tell you that Texans ownership didn’t screw Bill O’Brien, Bill O’Brien screwed Bill O’Brien. Due to his own egotistical and megalomaniac behavior, he failed to separate business reasons from personal ones and with that effectively doomed not only himself but the Texans organization. He leaves the Texans with the highest payroll this season at $248 million (I couldn’t find a website to confirm this but since these reporters know more than me let’s just take their word for it), no 1^st or 2^nd round picks in the 2021 draft and with 17 players to resign next season.

 

There’s a quote from Frank Herbert and it says, “Power tends to isolate those that have too much of it. Eventually, they lose touch with reality and fall.” After years of blame-shifting and finger-pointing, Bill O’Brien’s quest for more power finally paid off. He was “the man.” However, when s**t this the fan and he looked around for people to blame, he found himself alone at Mount Rushmore, unable to hide from the consequences of his actions.

 

If any of you Texans’ fans out there want to celebrate this new era, why not do it with some Texans’ merchandise from Fanatics.com. They offer the widest selection of all apparel and other items from all major US sports leagues like the NFL and NBA. So click the link below, head on over to Fantics.com, and remember, in the words of Tom Haverford and Donna Meagle, “treat yo self.”

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Why do the Minnesota Vikings suck?

 

Welcome to my new blog series guys, before we dive into it, I just want to go over two things. Firstly, I won’t focus on the pandemic as every team had to deal with the same challenges it brought. Secondly, I will only be doing teams that have surprised me with their poor performance, teams who I had either making the playoffs or being at least respectable, so no Jets or Giants in this series. So now let’s investigate why the Vikings suck so much after the first three weeks.

 

Last Season Summary

 

This team went 10-6 and in the postseason that went to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and got the W over the Saints. Just going off last year, their defence was borderline top ten in the league and the most disciplined as they were only penalised 83 times. Their offence was also impressive as they relied more on their running game with Dalvin Cook, which allowed Kirk Cousins to be more effective through the air. Sure, his stats took a hit with him posting career lows in yards, completions and attempts however this also led him to be arguably more effective, throwing a career-low six interceptions and only being sacked 28 times (tied 5^th best in the league). He posted his best quarterback rating ever of 107.4 and had his best QBR since his 2016 season with 61.7.

 

Fun Fact #1 – One stat that was insane to me was that last season, the Vikings defence was tied for 5th in total sacks with 48, yet they did that on only 21.7% of quarterback pressures per drop back, which was by far the lowest out of the teams in the top 10.

 

So, what’s going on?

 

The Vikings are a dismal 0-3, losing games to the Packers, Colts and Titans as the team is a shell of its former self. Kirk Cousins is allergic to making good passes and their defence is staying six feet away from their opponents. Let’s exam the three major factors that are contributing to their poor performance.:

 

First, I’ll start with the defence and I’m going be real with you guys, I’m not too mad at them. They lost a lot of their key starters this offseason like Xavier Rhodes, Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Trae Waynes and Stephen Weatherly. Losing most of your veteran starters will likely cause any defence to fall off so it would make sense why they’re the 3^rd worst defence in the league in terms of total yards allowed. Out of their 25 players on defence only six of those players have been in the league for more than four years. So, the defence is young and inexperienced, and I can only assume it will get better over time, so I shall give them a bligh.

 

Fun Fact #2 – The average years in the league for their entire 52-man roster is only 3, which goes to show you how young this team is on both sides of the ball.

 

The 2^nd reason for the team’s struggles is their horrible offensive line. Last season their o-line wasn’t anything too special, but they did their job well enough, but their line went through some changes last offseason. They released Josh Kline (G), Pat Elflein (LG/C) injured his thumb week 1 while their replacements Dakota Dozier and Dru Samia are playing terribly. This has caused Kirk to feel more pressure than he’s felt in a while. In just three games, he’s been sacked seven times and he’s been pressured on 34.4% of dropbacks which is way up from last year’s 22%.

 

Although both problems mentioned above are valid “excuses” for Vikings fans to blame their winless start on, there’s one far greater problem. The man I am giving the biggest piece of the blame pie to is Captain Kirk himself.

 

Is he good quarterback? For real somebody needs to tell me, because I can never decide, my answer changes every year.  If you just look at his stats then you’ll probably assume he is and that’s fair, he does have truly amazing numbers, but does he contribute to winning football? He’s like the Russell Westbrook of the NFL because you watch his numbers and you think, “he’s great,” but when you watch him play you constantly question the decisions that he makes. I don’t think he’s stat-padding, but it kind of seems like it.

 

I wouldn’t have a problem with him if he was being paid like an average quarterback, but he isn’t. He's the 7^th highest paid QB in the league in terms of average money ($33 million a year) and I don’t think he makes the team better. He found success with the Vikings last year because he was handing it off to Cook, thus lightening his load. But when he had to carry the team on his back, he has fallen short more times than he found success. He’s being paid elite quarterback money but he’s not. He’s not bad, I mean he’s only behind Drew Brees in terms of career completion % so he can make throws with accuracy. To me, he can’t consistently elevate his game and lead them to victory in big moments.

 

The 6 QBs that are paid more than him (Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Goff) are a combined 15-4 (Watson had to face three of the best teams to start, so I’ll let him off the hook.) These quarterbacks are all paid the big bucks for a reason because they’re the best in the league and have and can lead their team to a victory almost singlehandedly (Goff may be an exception but this isn’t his roast.) Did you really have to pay him $66 million over the next two years if your team is most successful when they’re relying on the run game?

 

So, my answer to the age-old question, “is Kirk Cousins good?” is not really. Now that I say that he’ll probably go on a tear and I’ll have to change my answer once again thus continuing this never-ending cycle.

 

Final Thoughts

 

On the defensive side, I trust that Zimmer can whip his defence into shape, so I hope they’ll be middle of the pack by season’s end. On offence, you just hope that Pat Elflein comes back soon, and their guard play improves even if it’s only by a bit. Finally, just give the damn ball to Dalvin Cook, the less Kirk throws it, the better.

 

PS – Remember when Steffon Diggs wanted a trade in the middle of last season, I thought he was crazy. I mean he was balling on the Vikings why would he want to leave. He seemed to be the smartest man in that locker room because he got out at the right time.

 

PPS – I started writing this before Week 4 and they ended up beating the Texans, so congratulations on doing your jobs guys.

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NFL 20-21 “Off the dome” Predictions

Football is back babyyyyyy!!!!! And if I am being totally honest with you, I spent little time keeping up with training camps. Mainly because I was too busy watching the NBA bubble and playoffs and since there was no preseason, I didn’t have any incentive to keep up with the NFL news. So, I didn’t know the injuries that each team is dealing with, but oh well.

So as the title says I shall do my predictions for records, division winners, playoff matchups, award winners and Superbowl winner off the top of my head. Naturally, I will be 100% correct as I am a prediction god, just go read about who I thought would make the 8^th seed in the West (PLEASE note the sarcasm and also, I know it’s a selfish plug). I’m just going off each team’s schedule, this is going to be off the dome (or a domer if you will), not going too in-depth in each team, because I find this way is easier and it's more fun for me.

Also, don’t expect a lot of explanations for my picks because then this would be way longer than it really should be. Lastly, sorry that I am releasing this after week 1, I didn’t know I wanted to do this until like the 12^th of September.

 

The NFC

 

NFC North

 

Green Bay Packers – 11-5       DW

Minnesota Vikings – 10-6

Detroit Lions – 6-10

Chicago Bears – 4-12

 

NFC South

 

New Orleans Saints – 12-4      DW

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 11-5

Atlanta Falcons – 6-10

Carolina Panthers – 4-12

 

NFC East

 

Dallas Cowboys – 9-7              DW

Philadelphia Eagles – 7-9

New York Giants – 3-13

Washington Football Team – 2-14

 

NFC West

 

San Francisco 49ers – 12-4

Seattle Seahawks – 11-5

Los Angeles Rams – 10-6

Arizona Cardinals – 8-8

 

NFC Seeding

1.      San Francisco 49ers    (West)             BYE

2.      New Orleans Saints     (South)

3.      Green Bay Packers      (North)

4.      Dallas Cowboys           (East)

5.      Seattle Seahawks

6.      Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7.      Los Angeles Rams

 

AFC

 

AFC North

 

Baltimore Ravens – 12-4         DW

Cleveland Browns – 10-6

Pittsburgh Steelers – 8-8

Cincinnati Bengals – 4-12

 

AFC South

 

Tennessee Titans – 9-7

Houston Texans – 7-9

Indianapolis Colts – 5-11

Jacksonville Jaguars – 3-13

 

AFC East

 

Buffalo Bills – 10-6

New England Patriots – 7-9

Miami Dolphins – 4-12

New York Jets – 3-13

 

 

AFC West

 

Kansas City Chiefs – 12-4

Las Vegas Raiders – 9-7

Los Angles Chargers – 8-8

Denver Broncos – 7-9

 

AFC Seedings

1.      Baltimore Ravens        (North)            BYE

2.      Kansas City Chiefs       (West)

3.      Buffalo Bills                 (East)

4.      Tennessee Titans        (South)

5.      Cleveland Browns

6.      Las Vegas Raiders

7.      New England Patriots

 

NFC Playoffs

 

Wild Card Round

 

2 vs 7: Saints vs Rams                         WINNER – Saints

3 vs 6: Packers vs Buccaneers             WINNER – Buccaneers

4 vs 5: Cowboys vs Seahawks             WINNER – Seahawks

 

 

 

Divisional Round

 

1 vs 5: 49ers vs Seahawks                   WINNER – Seahawks

2 vs 6: Saints vs Buccaneers               WINNER – Saints

 

NFC Championship

 

2 vs 5: Saints vs Seahawks                  WINNER – Saints

 

AFC Wildcard

 

2 vs 7: Chiefs vs Patriots                     WINNER – Chiefs

3 vs 6: Bills vs Raiders                         WINNER – Bills

4 vs 5: Titans vs Browns                      WINNER – Titans

 

Divisional Round

 

1 vs 4: Ravens vs Titans                      WINNER – Ravens

2 vs 3: Chiefs vs Bills                           WINNER – Chiefs

 

Championship Game

 

1 vs 2: Ravens vs Chiefs                      WINNER – Chiefs

 

Superbowl 55

 

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

 

WINNER – Kansas City Chiefs

 

Awards

 

MVP – Russell Wilson

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Joe Burrow

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year – C.J. Henderson

 

Offensive Player of the Year – Christian McCaffery

 

Defensive Player of the Year – Khalil Mack

 

Coach of the Year – Andy Reid.

 

Comeback Player of the Year – Tyrod Taylor

Also if you were interested in how horribly my 8th seed in the West predictions actually were then why don't you take a read for yourself. Please just don't shame me

https://andrewjaevelyn.blogspot.com/2020/07/race-for-8th-in-west.html

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Is it time to jump ship to Tampa Bay?

So, in case you missed it on the 20^th of March 2020 the goat, Tom Brady signed a 2-year $50 million contract to take the field with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 41 years old is starting a new chapter after he spent his first 20 seasons in Foxborough winning rings and setting records with Bill Belichick. But he didn’t go alone, he was able to bring long time teammate and current WWE 24/7 Champion (don’t believe me? Look it up) Rob Gronkowski out of retirement to join him.

These two will join stud wide receiver duo Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin, as well as a young and improving tight end O.J. Howard. Now this offense has a new look to it and that fans and media alike are taking note. They have bought into the hype and now suddenly, the Bucs have 16/1 odds according to CBS Sports and 13/1 odds according to Vegas Insider to win Superbowl 55, their highest odds for the more than a decade. They are suddenly a Superbowl contender and considered one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. I mean on paper it sure looks like that but before you drink the Kool-Aid, let's just dive in a bit deeper and examine how will this team stacks up. 

Pros

So, the Bucs now have the best quarterback to ever live, a top ten tight end of all time, and two Pro-bowl caliber wide receivers. Last year they were 3^rd in the league in terms of total offense as well as passing touchdowns with 33 and 1^st in passing offense with 4845 yards. But this time, providing that Brady doesn’t fall off a cliff (shout out Max Kellerman), they will be able to cut down on the interceptions as last year Jameis Winston threw a truly catastrophic yet somehow impressive league-leading 30 picks.

I also do believe that Brady and Bruce Arians will be able to instill more discipline into the offense to cut down on their penalties as they led the league with 133.

The addition of Gronk to go along with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate gives Tampa great depth. All three are great pass catchers and respectful blockers for their position so this will help both the passing and running game. Expect some twin tight end sets next season.

They drafted Tristan Wirfs in the 1^st round to help sure up the o-line and protect Tom Brady.

Cons

Okay, so where do we start:

Last season the Bucs had one of the best offenses in the NFL, even with Jameis giving the ball to other teams because they asked nicely, but what about the other 6 players who were on the field with them. I’m talking about the running back and the offensive linemen. Last year Tampa Bay had one of if not the worst O-lines in the league which caused the running game to become ineffective majority of times. This is probably the reason why they led the league in passing yards (and interceptions):

Stat Name	TB Stats	League Ranking
Rushing Yards	1521	24th
Rushing Attempts	409	15th
Yards a Carry	3.7	27th
Rushing Touchdowns	15	15th
Sacks Allowed	47	22nd

(*rankings are in ascending order*)

Brady’s old team last year only gave up 28 sacks which was tied for 5^th in the league. This is relevant because as Tom got older Belichick made sure to protect him with a great offensive line and an above-average running game. This was done to ensure that he can minimize his workload and the blows he took, now he goes to a situation where he may take more shots. Besides drafting Wirfs 13^th overall, they have done little to nothing to give some protection besides signing some undrafted free agents.

Now let's talk about the other side of the ball. Last year the Bucs’ were ranked 29^th in the league in overall defense. But let’s read into it a bit more:

Stat Name	TB Stats	League Ranking
Total Passing Yards Allowed	4322	3rd
Total Pass Attempts	664	1st
Passing TDs Allowed	30	7th (tied)
Interceptions Caused	12	17th (tied)
Yards per Pass	6.1	20th (tied)
Total Rushing Yards Allowed	1181	32nd (best in the league)
Total Rush Attempts	362	29th
Rushing TDs Allowed	11	25th (tied)
Yards per Rush	3.3	31st (tied)
Tackles for Loss	87	5th (tied)
Sacks	47	7th (tied)

(*rankings are in ascending order*)

Now, let’s give them the benefit of the doubt because their quarterback was giving their opponents shorter fields and more drives. After all, he did throw 30 interceptions. These stats paint multiple pictures in terms of how we should feel about their defensive performance last season:

·         Worst passing defense and yet one of the best rushing defense.

·         Did teams throw so much because the Bucs had such a great run defensive? Or did they just not have the personnel to defend the pass adequately?

·         Did teams shy away from the run because their defense was too great? Or did they just know they can be more successful when throwing it?

·         If Jameis only threw half as many interceptions (15 in case you can't do the math), how much would that helped their defense in certain situations?

You see normally in cases like these, the picture is normally black and white, but when your offense throws 30 picks it’s no doubt going to affect the other side of the ball. Overall, I do believe that if Tampa’s secondary won’t defend the pass any better this season and think they will be in constant shoot outs, which is always a 50/50 gamble.

And finally, let's look at the cap space going forward. In all honesty I am not a cap expert, so I will only be able to scratch the surface a bit. Brady is making $25mill for the next 2 seasons, some core guys who are expiring after this season are Chris Godwin, Ndamukong Suh, Shaquil Barrett, and Lavonte David not to mention the cap most likely to go down due to the coronavirus. This could leave the Bucs in a hard situation in terms of who to keep or let walk and this also limits the money that they can spend in free agency next season.

So, we got 2 years to wait and see if Tom Brady brings any much-needed wins to the Tampa Bay area or if he loses the war with father time. One thing is for certain though; this is the most relevant Tampa has been in a decade and it presents them with their best chance to make the postseason for the first time since the 2007 season. If some success does come their way, I guess their fans can all agree on one thing, “it’s a beautiful day in Tampa Bay!”

19^th of May 2020

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