Race for 8th in the West

Earlier this week I had a post about how I thought the Wizards were going to beat out the Nets and make it into the playoffs; however, after Bradley Beal announced that he wouldn’t be playing, they don’t have a prayer. So I’m moving onto the West...

There are a total of six teams in the West that have a chance to qualify for the playoffs: the Grizzlies, the Blazers, the Pelicans, the Kings, the Spurs and the Suns. However, I believe that only half of those teams have an actual chance of obtaining that coveted 8^th seed. Now, let’s separate the contenders from the pretenders.

The Pretenders

1.      The Phoenix Suns

The Suns are the lowest-ranked team (13^th) out of the six with a record of 26-39 which puts them behind the 8^th seeded Grizzlies by six games and two and a half games out of the 9^th seed. The Suns are playing the Wizards, Mavs, Clippers, Pacers, Heat, OKC, 76ers, and Mavs (again) in that exact order which gives them the 3^rd hardest schedule amongst the six teams based on their opponents’ average winning percentage. They have a combined record of 3-8 against these seven teams while failing to beat four of them (Heat, OKC, Wizards and Pacers).

To add insult to injury (literally) they shall be missing their team’s 2^nd leading scoring, Kelly Oubre Jr. aka Tsunami Papi as he underwent surgery on his right knee to repair his torn meniscus. Their playoff drought shall continue as they were unable to capitalize on their fast start due to one untimely suspension (*cough cough* Deandre Ayton).

 

2.      The San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are a spot higher than the Suns with a record of 27-36 which has them four games behind the 8^th seed and one and a half games behind the 9^th seed. Their opponents are the Kings, Grizzlies, 76ers, Nuggets, Jazz, Pelicans, Rockets, and Jazz (again) in that order. This gives them the 4^th hardest schedule amongst the six teams based on their opponents’ average winning percentage. The Spurs have managed to have a combined record of 6-6 against the seven teams and they only failed to beat two of those teams pre-quarantine (Nuggets and 76ers).

They will be without LaMarcus Aldridge as he had right shoulder surgery in June. He was not only the team’s leading rebounder but their 2^nd leading scorer. It seems that the Spurs legendary 22 consecutive playoff appearance streak will come to an end this season as I’m sure not even a prime Tim Duncan could save them. (Who am I kidding? Timmy would have!)

 

3.      The Portland Trail Blazers

Okay, before you get upset and ask me if I even watch basketball, allow me to make my case first. The Blazers are 9^th in the West only trailing the Grizzlies by three and a half games. The eight games they play are against the Grizzlies, Celtics, Rockets, Nuggets, Clippers, 76ers, Mavs and Nets in that order.They have the hardest schedule based on their opponents’ winning percentage out of all six teams fighting for the 8^th seed. The Blazers went a dismal 3-12 against the eight teams they’re matched up against (managing to beat only the Rockets and the Mavs)during the pre-shutdown regular season. They will be without veteran 3&D player Trevor Ariza (one-month visitation window with his son); Caleb Swanigan (opted out); and key role player Rodney Hood (torn left Achilles) in the Orlando bubble.

It’s not all bad news for Portland as they will be getting back previously injured Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic in Orlando. Nurkic and Collins have been out since March 25^th, 2019, and November 5^th, 2019 respectively. But even with those positives I still believe that the Blazers won’t make the playoffs this year. They are integrating players who haven’t played in over eight months while having one of the hardest schedules of the remaining 22 teams.  Two losses in a row can see them overtaken by the Kings or the Pelicans or both.It is going to be a tough task that I don’t think Dame and CJ can complete. I mean I could be wrong, but I don’t think I will be. 

 

Now that we have eliminated half the teams, let’s talk about the three teams that I believe have the greatest chance of making the playoffs.

 

Contenders

1.      The Memphis Grizzlies

Why don’t we kick things off with the current 8^th seed in the West? Memphis currently holds a 32-33 record which gives them a three and a half-game lead over the Kings, Blazers and Pelicans. They will be playing against the Blazers, Spurs, Pelicans, Jazz, OKC, Raptors, Celtics, and Bucks in that order. This gives them the 2^nd hardest schedule out of the six teams in terms of their opponents’ average winning percentage. They managed a combined record of 5-7 against these teams during the pre-shutdown regular season however they did not play against the Raptors this season. The only player not joining them in Orlando so far is Grayson Allen (hip) as the previously injured Brandon Clarke is set to return for the resumption of the season.

The biggest road block the Grizzlies face is that they play against the top three teams in the East at the end which makes their chances of finishing strong slim to none. However, the Grizzlies still can hold onto their 8^th seed if they just simply start off strong. Their first three games are against teams under .500 and beating them will mean they will be able to add to their three and a half-game cushion. They just need to try to win one or two of their last five to ensure that they hold onto their spot.

2.      The Sacramento Kings

Oh Kings, where did it all go wrong? After almost making the playoffs last year the Kings killed all their momentum by hiring the incompetent Luke Walton as their head coach but that’s another topic for another day.

The Kings have a record of 28-36 and they will have the 2^nd easiest schedule of the six teams. They will be playing the Spurs, Magic, Mavs, Pelicans, Nets, Rockets, Pelicans and the Lakers in that order. They went a disappointing combined 3-9 against these teams during the regular season. One great piece of news is that none of the Kings players have opted out so far and they are getting Marvin Bagley back as he has been injured since the 20^th of January 2020.

One major problem they’re facing is that three of their players (Alex Len, Buddy Hield, and Jabari Parker) tested positive for COVID-19. We don’t know how it will affect their play or if they will decide to opt-out in the coming weeks.

The bad news for them is that even though they have an easy schedule, the Pelicans have an easier one. This puts them at a disadvantage as not only do they play them twice but they also share identical records. This means one or two slip-ups or failing to win at least one game against the Pelicans will seriously affect their chances of making the 8^th or 9^th seed. They only play three teams who have a winning record and the rest of the teams they play haven’t won more than 31 games. (I mean, neither have they but whatever.) They went 10-5 in their last fifteen games and they were one of the hottest teams in the league who were heating up at exactly the right time so who’s to say that they can’t pick up where they left off?

 

3.      The New Orleans Pelicans

Finally, we have the Pelicans - a team that recovered from an eleven-game losing streak to become a team that has a good chance of making it to the playoffs. The Pelicans are in 10^th with a record of 28-36; they are higher than the Kings due to them winning their one head-to-head match-up. The eight teams that they will be playing are the Jazz, Clippers, Grizzlies, Kings, Wizards, Spurs, Kings (again), and Magic. Their schedule is not only the easiest among the six teams but among the entire twenty-two teams going to Orlando. They are only playing against two teams that have a winning record while the six other teams have all failed to win more than 33 games. The Pelicans managed to have a combined record of 3-8 before the hiatus but they never played the Wizards. So far the only player that won’t be joining them in Orlando is the previously injured Darius Miller (Achilles).

It does seem that the NBA is doing everything that they can to get Zion into the playoffs or it could just be pure coincidence. They’re playing teams like the Jazz, Wizards, and Spurs who are missing key players (Wizards – Bertans and Beal; Jazz – Bojan Bogdanovic) while playing the Kings who have been nothing but inconsistent - twice. They have favorable match-ups and a great offense which makes them a big threat of qualifying for the playoffs in West.

 

 

Who’s making it out?

This question is easier said than done. We haven’t seen these teams in over 121 days and we have no idea how they will play with all the conditions and new/missing players.  We must consider their mindsets: Are they going to be hellbent on making the playoffs or are they just excited to go to Disney World?

Not only do they have to stay “locked-in” on qualifying for the playoffs but they also must keep in mind that there’s still a global pandemic and Florida, the site of The Bubble, has been recording record new cases every day. There are a lot of factors, besides potential infection or re-infection for some players, that go into my decision.

First off, I think that the team that gets the 9^th seed and faces the Grizzlies in the play-in tournament will be the Sacramento Kings. I just think the Kings have more motivation to push themselves to a playoff push as we were seeing right before the hiatus. Luke Walton is literally holding onto his coaching career by a thread; the franchise hasn’t made the playoffs since 2006; and Buddy Hield is growing disgruntled after being moved to the bench.  All of these pressures are either going to make a diamond or burst a pipe. I hope that it’s the former although I still want Walton fired.

I can see them winning against the Spurs, Magic, Nets, and Pelicans. I can even see them winning both games against the Pelicans but I don’t want to get carried away. What I also find interesting is their last game is against the Lakers; perhaps Lebron and company decides to rest and give their new bench players more playing time to get them more integrated for the long playoff run.The Kings have the potential for 4-6 wins and if the Grizzlies fail to win majority of their games, they will be facing a team with more momentum that’s gunning to take their spot.

The Pelicans may be able to win 4-5 games as well but if they lose to the Kings, even once, it may derail their journey altogether. The Pelicans have their three hardest games first so if they can’t win at least one then they run the risk of falling behind the Kings early; and if they surrender one game against them then that might be all she wrote of them.

Now, let's get to the play-in tournament with the Grizzlies vs Kings. So, as you can tell, I really want the Kings to make it but I do believe that they might run out of steam at the finish line. I can see them winning game one and scaring the life out of Memphis fans but I think that will serve as their wake-up call. Honestly, as much as I want the Kings to make it, I just know somehow, someway Luke Walton is going to find a way to mess this team up again (no offense Luke).