Is it time to jump ship to Tampa Bay?

So, in case you missed it on the 20^th of March 2020 the goat, Tom Brady signed a 2-year $50 million contract to take the field with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 41 years old is starting a new chapter after he spent his first 20 seasons in Foxborough winning rings and setting records with Bill Belichick. But he didn’t go alone, he was able to bring long time teammate and current WWE 24/7 Champion (don’t believe me? Look it up) Rob Gronkowski out of retirement to join him.

These two will join stud wide receiver duo Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin, as well as a young and improving tight end O.J. Howard. Now this offense has a new look to it and that fans and media alike are taking note. They have bought into the hype and now suddenly, the Bucs have 16/1 odds according to CBS Sports and 13/1 odds according to Vegas Insider to win Superbowl 55, their highest odds for the more than a decade. They are suddenly a Superbowl contender and considered one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. I mean on paper it sure looks like that but before you drink the Kool-Aid, let's just dive in a bit deeper and examine how will this team stacks up. 

Pros

So, the Bucs now have the best quarterback to ever live, a top ten tight end of all time, and two Pro-bowl caliber wide receivers. Last year they were 3^rd in the league in terms of total offense as well as passing touchdowns with 33 and 1^st in passing offense with 4845 yards. But this time, providing that Brady doesn’t fall off a cliff (shout out Max Kellerman), they will be able to cut down on the interceptions as last year Jameis Winston threw a truly catastrophic yet somehow impressive league-leading 30 picks.

I also do believe that Brady and Bruce Arians will be able to instill more discipline into the offense to cut down on their penalties as they led the league with 133.

The addition of Gronk to go along with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate gives Tampa great depth. All three are great pass catchers and respectful blockers for their position so this will help both the passing and running game. Expect some twin tight end sets next season.

They drafted Tristan Wirfs in the 1^st round to help sure up the o-line and protect Tom Brady.

Cons

Okay, so where do we start:

Last season the Bucs had one of the best offenses in the NFL, even with Jameis giving the ball to other teams because they asked nicely, but what about the other 6 players who were on the field with them. I’m talking about the running back and the offensive linemen. Last year Tampa Bay had one of if not the worst O-lines in the league which caused the running game to become ineffective majority of times. This is probably the reason why they led the league in passing yards (and interceptions):

Stat Name	TB Stats	League Ranking
Rushing Yards	1521	24th
Rushing Attempts	409	15th
Yards a Carry	3.7	27th
Rushing Touchdowns	15	15th
Sacks Allowed	47	22nd

(*rankings are in ascending order*)

Brady’s old team last year only gave up 28 sacks which was tied for 5^th in the league. This is relevant because as Tom got older Belichick made sure to protect him with a great offensive line and an above-average running game. This was done to ensure that he can minimize his workload and the blows he took, now he goes to a situation where he may take more shots. Besides drafting Wirfs 13^th overall, they have done little to nothing to give some protection besides signing some undrafted free agents.

Now let's talk about the other side of the ball. Last year the Bucs’ were ranked 29^th in the league in overall defense. But let’s read into it a bit more:

Stat Name	TB Stats	League Ranking
Total Passing Yards Allowed	4322	3rd
Total Pass Attempts	664	1st
Passing TDs Allowed	30	7th (tied)
Interceptions Caused	12	17th (tied)
Yards per Pass	6.1	20th (tied)
Total Rushing Yards Allowed	1181	32nd (best in the league)
Total Rush Attempts	362	29th
Rushing TDs Allowed	11	25th (tied)
Yards per Rush	3.3	31st (tied)
Tackles for Loss	87	5th (tied)
Sacks	47	7th (tied)

(*rankings are in ascending order*)

Now, let’s give them the benefit of the doubt because their quarterback was giving their opponents shorter fields and more drives. After all, he did throw 30 interceptions. These stats paint multiple pictures in terms of how we should feel about their defensive performance last season:

·         Worst passing defense and yet one of the best rushing defense.

·         Did teams throw so much because the Bucs had such a great run defensive? Or did they just not have the personnel to defend the pass adequately?

·         Did teams shy away from the run because their defense was too great? Or did they just know they can be more successful when throwing it?

·         If Jameis only threw half as many interceptions (15 in case you can't do the math), how much would that helped their defense in certain situations?

You see normally in cases like these, the picture is normally black and white, but when your offense throws 30 picks it’s no doubt going to affect the other side of the ball. Overall, I do believe that if Tampa’s secondary won’t defend the pass any better this season and think they will be in constant shoot outs, which is always a 50/50 gamble.

And finally, let's look at the cap space going forward. In all honesty I am not a cap expert, so I will only be able to scratch the surface a bit. Brady is making $25mill for the next 2 seasons, some core guys who are expiring after this season are Chris Godwin, Ndamukong Suh, Shaquil Barrett, and Lavonte David not to mention the cap most likely to go down due to the coronavirus. This could leave the Bucs in a hard situation in terms of who to keep or let walk and this also limits the money that they can spend in free agency next season.

So, we got 2 years to wait and see if Tom Brady brings any much-needed wins to the Tampa Bay area or if he loses the war with father time. One thing is for certain though; this is the most relevant Tampa has been in a decade and it presents them with their best chance to make the postseason for the first time since the 2007 season. If some success does come their way, I guess their fans can all agree on one thing, “it’s a beautiful day in Tampa Bay!”

19^th of May 2020