So, in case you missed it on the 20th of
March 2020 the goat, Tom Brady signed a 2-year $50 million contract to take the
field with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 41 years old is starting a new chapter
after he spent his first 20 seasons in Foxborough winning rings and setting
records with Bill Belichick. But he didn’t go alone, he was able to bring long
time teammate and current WWE 24/7 Champion (don’t believe me? Look it up) Rob
Gronkowski out of retirement to join him.
These two will join stud wide receiver duo Mike Evans
and Chris Goodwin, as well as a young and improving tight end O.J. Howard. Now
this offense has a new look to it and that fans and media alike are taking
note. They have bought into the hype and now suddenly, the Bucs have 16/1 odds
according to CBS Sports and 13/1 odds according to Vegas Insider to win
Superbowl 55, their highest odds for the more than a decade. They are suddenly
a Superbowl contender and considered one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. I mean
on paper it sure looks like that but before you drink the Kool-Aid, let's just
dive in a bit deeper and examine how will this team stacks up.
Pros
So, the Bucs now have the best quarterback to ever
live, a top ten tight end of all time, and two Pro-bowl caliber wide receivers.
Last year they were 3rd in the league in terms of total offense as
well as passing touchdowns with 33 and 1st in passing offense with
4845 yards. But this time, providing that Brady doesn’t fall off a cliff (shout
out Max Kellerman), they will be able to cut down on the interceptions as last
year Jameis Winston threw a truly catastrophic yet somehow impressive league-leading
30 picks.
I also do believe that Brady and Bruce Arians will be
able to instill more discipline into the offense to cut down on their penalties
as they led the league with 133.
The addition of Gronk to go along with O.J. Howard and
Cameron Brate gives Tampa great depth. All three are great pass catchers and
respectful blockers for their position so this will help both the passing and
running game. Expect some twin tight end sets next season.
They drafted Tristan Wirfs in the 1st round
to help sure up the o-line and protect Tom Brady.
Cons
Okay, so where do we start:
Last season the Bucs had one of the best offenses in
the NFL, even with Jameis giving the ball to other teams because they asked
nicely, but what about the other 6 players who were on the field with them. I’m
talking about the running back and the offensive linemen. Last year Tampa Bay
had one of if not the worst O-lines in the league which caused the running game
to become ineffective majority of times. This is probably the reason why they
led the league in passing yards (and interceptions):
Stat
Name |
TB
Stats |
League
Ranking |
Rushing
Yards |
1521 |
24th
|
Rushing
Attempts |
409 |
15th
|
Yards
a Carry |
3.7 |
27th
|
Rushing
Touchdowns |
15 |
15th
|
Sacks
Allowed |
47 |
22nd
|
(*rankings are in
ascending order*)
Brady’s old team last year only gave up 28 sacks which
was tied for 5th in the league. This is relevant because as Tom got
older Belichick made sure to protect him with a great offensive line and an
above-average running game. This was done to ensure that he can minimize his
workload and the blows he took, now he goes to a situation where he may take
more shots. Besides drafting Wirfs 13th overall, they have done
little to nothing to give some protection besides signing some undrafted free
agents.
Now let's talk about the other side of the ball. Last
year the Bucs’ were ranked 29th in the league in overall defense. But
let’s read into it a bit more:
Stat
Name |
TB
Stats |
League
Ranking |
Total
Passing Yards Allowed |
4322 |
3rd
|
Total
Pass Attempts |
664 |
1st
|
Passing
TDs Allowed |
30 |
7th
(tied) |
Interceptions
Caused |
12 |
17th
(tied) |
Yards
per Pass |
6.1 |
20th
(tied) |
Total
Rushing Yards Allowed |
1181 |
32nd
(best in the league) |
Total
Rush Attempts |
362 |
29th
|
Rushing
TDs Allowed |
11 |
25th
(tied) |
Yards
per Rush |
3.3 |
31st
(tied) |
Tackles
for Loss |
87 |
5th
(tied) |
Sacks
|
47 |
7th
(tied) |
(*rankings are in
ascending order*)
Now, let’s give them the benefit of the doubt because
their quarterback was giving their opponents shorter fields and more drives.
After all, he did throw 30 interceptions. These stats paint multiple pictures
in terms of how we should feel about their defensive performance last season:
·
Worst passing defense and yet one of the
best rushing defense.
·
Did teams throw so much because the Bucs
had such a great run defensive? Or did they just not have the personnel to
defend the pass adequately?
·
Did teams shy away from the run because
their defense was too great? Or did they just know they can be more successful
when throwing it?
·
If Jameis only threw half as many
interceptions (15 in case you can't do the math), how much would that helped
their defense in certain situations?
You see normally in cases like these, the picture is
normally black and white, but when your offense throws 30 picks it’s no doubt
going to affect the other side of the ball. Overall, I do believe that if Tampa’s
secondary won’t defend the pass any better this season and think they will be
in constant shoot outs, which is always a 50/50 gamble.
And finally, let's look at the cap space going
forward. In all honesty I am not a cap expert, so I will only be able to
scratch the surface a bit. Brady is making $25mill for the next 2 seasons, some
core guys who are expiring after this season are Chris Godwin, Ndamukong Suh,
Shaquil Barrett, and Lavonte David not to mention the cap most likely to go
down due to the coronavirus. This could leave the Bucs in a hard situation in
terms of who to keep or let walk and this also limits the money that they can
spend in free agency next season.
So, we got 2 years to wait and see if Tom Brady brings
any much-needed wins to the Tampa Bay area or if he loses the war with father
time. One thing is for certain though; this is the most relevant Tampa has been
in a decade and it presents them with their best chance to make the postseason
for the first time since the 2007 season. If some success does come their way,
I guess their fans can all agree on one thing, “it’s a beautiful day in Tampa
Bay!”
19th of May 2020
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