Saturday, June 13, 2020

Is it time to jump ship to Tampa Bay?

So, in case you missed it on the 20th of March 2020 the goat, Tom Brady signed a 2-year $50 million contract to take the field with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 41 years old is starting a new chapter after he spent his first 20 seasons in Foxborough winning rings and setting records with Bill Belichick. But he didn’t go alone, he was able to bring long time teammate and current WWE 24/7 Champion (don’t believe me? Look it up) Rob Gronkowski out of retirement to join him.

These two will join stud wide receiver duo Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin, as well as a young and improving tight end O.J. Howard. Now this offense has a new look to it and that fans and media alike are taking note. They have bought into the hype and now suddenly, the Bucs have 16/1 odds according to CBS Sports and 13/1 odds according to Vegas Insider to win Superbowl 55, their highest odds for the more than a decade. They are suddenly a Superbowl contender and considered one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. I mean on paper it sure looks like that but before you drink the Kool-Aid, let's just dive in a bit deeper and examine how will this team stacks up. 

Pros

So, the Bucs now have the best quarterback to ever live, a top ten tight end of all time, and two Pro-bowl caliber wide receivers. Last year they were 3rd in the league in terms of total offense as well as passing touchdowns with 33 and 1st in passing offense with 4845 yards. But this time, providing that Brady doesn’t fall off a cliff (shout out Max Kellerman), they will be able to cut down on the interceptions as last year Jameis Winston threw a truly catastrophic yet somehow impressive league-leading 30 picks.

I also do believe that Brady and Bruce Arians will be able to instill more discipline into the offense to cut down on their penalties as they led the league with 133.

The addition of Gronk to go along with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate gives Tampa great depth. All three are great pass catchers and respectful blockers for their position so this will help both the passing and running game. Expect some twin tight end sets next season.

They drafted Tristan Wirfs in the 1st round to help sure up the o-line and protect Tom Brady.

Cons

Okay, so where do we start:

Last season the Bucs had one of the best offenses in the NFL, even with Jameis giving the ball to other teams because they asked nicely, but what about the other 6 players who were on the field with them. I’m talking about the running back and the offensive linemen. Last year Tampa Bay had one of if not the worst O-lines in the league which caused the running game to become ineffective majority of times. This is probably the reason why they led the league in passing yards (and interceptions):

Stat Name

TB Stats

League Ranking

Rushing Yards

1521

24th

Rushing Attempts

409

15th

Yards a Carry

3.7

27th

Rushing Touchdowns

15

15th

Sacks Allowed

47

22nd

(*rankings are in ascending order*)

Brady’s old team last year only gave up 28 sacks which was tied for 5th in the league. This is relevant because as Tom got older Belichick made sure to protect him with a great offensive line and an above-average running game. This was done to ensure that he can minimize his workload and the blows he took, now he goes to a situation where he may take more shots. Besides drafting Wirfs 13th overall, they have done little to nothing to give some protection besides signing some undrafted free agents.

Now let's talk about the other side of the ball. Last year the Bucs’ were ranked 29th in the league in overall defense. But let’s read into it a bit more:

Stat Name

TB Stats

League Ranking

Total Passing Yards Allowed

4322

3rd

Total Pass Attempts

664

1st

Passing TDs Allowed

30

7th (tied)

Interceptions Caused

12

17th (tied)

Yards per Pass

6.1

20th (tied)

Total Rushing Yards Allowed

1181

32nd (best in the league)  

Total Rush Attempts

362

29th

Rushing TDs Allowed

11

25th (tied)

Yards per Rush

3.3

31st (tied)

Tackles for Loss

87

5th (tied)

Sacks

47

7th (tied)

(*rankings are in ascending order*)

Now, let’s give them the benefit of the doubt because their quarterback was giving their opponents shorter fields and more drives. After all, he did throw 30 interceptions. These stats paint multiple pictures in terms of how we should feel about their defensive performance last season:

·         Worst passing defense and yet one of the best rushing defense.

·         Did teams throw so much because the Bucs had such a great run defensive? Or did they just not have the personnel to defend the pass adequately?

·         Did teams shy away from the run because their defense was too great? Or did they just know they can be more successful when throwing it?

·         If Jameis only threw half as many interceptions (15 in case you can't do the math), how much would that helped their defense in certain situations?

You see normally in cases like these, the picture is normally black and white, but when your offense throws 30 picks it’s no doubt going to affect the other side of the ball. Overall, I do believe that if Tampa’s secondary won’t defend the pass any better this season and think they will be in constant shoot outs, which is always a 50/50 gamble.

And finally, let's look at the cap space going forward. In all honesty I am not a cap expert, so I will only be able to scratch the surface a bit. Brady is making $25mill for the next 2 seasons, some core guys who are expiring after this season are Chris Godwin, Ndamukong Suh, Shaquil Barrett, and Lavonte David not to mention the cap most likely to go down due to the coronavirus. This could leave the Bucs in a hard situation in terms of who to keep or let walk and this also limits the money that they can spend in free agency next season.

So, we got 2 years to wait and see if Tom Brady brings any much-needed wins to the Tampa Bay area or if he loses the war with father time. One thing is for certain though; this is the most relevant Tampa has been in a decade and it presents them with their best chance to make the postseason for the first time since the 2007 season. If some success does come their way, I guess their fans can all agree on one thing, “it’s a beautiful day in Tampa Bay!”

19th of May 2020


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About Me

My name is Andrew, I’m 22 and I am an American however I live in the beautiful twin islands of Trinidad and Tobago in the Caribbean. However instead of writing and talking about sports that are very popular where I am from like football (which is soccer in case I somehow have any American readers) and cricket, I instead tend focus on the NFL and the NBA. That doesn’t mean I am against diversifying and talking about other sports, for example I would love to talk about wrestling, however I want to stick to things that I find are a little more interesting. My favourite teams are the Toronto Raptors, Seattle Seahawks and Manchester City (English premiere league). I consider myself very fortunate that during my existence I saw all three of my teams win championships I know there are people who live and die without even sniffing a championship.

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